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03/28/2024 Trade Anxiously Awaits Planting Intentions, With a Late Breaking Estimate from One Firm Leaning Friendly to Corn

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Good morning. Tomorrow is Good Friday so markets are closed and we'll have no reports tomorrow. We wish you and your family a joyous Easter. Grains are quietly mixed in overnight trade. As of 6am corn was steady, beans soft and wheat on the firm side. At 7:30, we'll get weekly export sales, which could set the tone for trade leading into the 11am release of the long awaited Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. Here are the ranges of expected sales: Corn, 800K to 1.3 million tonnes, Soybeans, 300-700K, wheat, from negative 100K (due to cancellations exceeding sales) to 300,000 tonnes. This afternoon's report will cover the highlights and market impact of the two big reports coming out at 11 am. Here once again are the averages and ranges of trade estimates for planting intentions. A late breaking release of estimates from Farmers Business Network (FBN) that weren't included among other firms surveyed tilts the odds toward a bigger shift from corn to beans. They have an admirable track record for their estimates and while the lowest trade estimate for corn acreage is 90 million acres with an average of 91.8 million, FBN has the…
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03/27/2024 Trade Braces for Big Reports and Fallout from Latest Supply Chain Disruption

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are weaker in overnight trading as this goes to press around 6am. Traders continue to position themselves for tomorrow's big day. USDA will release both the Prospective Plantings Report and Mar. 1 Grain Stocks at 11am and the range of trade estimates is wide enough on both reports to trigger significant market reaction if USDA's numbers come in near either end of those ranges. The news is dominated by the supply chain disruption likely with that catastrophic bridge collapse in Boston now blocking ship traffic in and out of that key port. Agricultural trade is impacted as detailed below. Recriminations will focus in coming weeks that will challenge politicians, engineers, and executives. How did a ship striking a single pier take out the whole bridge? Where were backup systems to steer the ship? Why were there no early warnings and tugboats available? Who is liable for costs of cleanup? It's bittersweet in the wake of the cattle market collapse on the bird flu in cattle story yesterday, but a new report assures that Americans remain big meat eaters. Despite decades of attacks on livestock operations by environmental zealots, the new "Power of Meat" report from the Meat…
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03/26/2024 Export Pace Stays Strong for Corn, But Lags in Beans and Wheat

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are soft in overnight trade as spring planting prospects continue improving and traders focus on positioning for possible surprises in Thursday's Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports. Fund activity has been inconclusive so far, but being so heavily short they're more likely to be lightening up some going into Thursday's reports. Yesterday's weekly export inspections continue supportive for corn. They were in the upper end of the range of expectations. While YTD export sales are running behind the needed pace, the amount actually shipped, is now 33.6% ahead of last year versus USDA forecasts for a 26.4% increase. Alas, that's not the case for soybeans. Inspections were only mid-range versus expectations and year to date actual shipments lag last year by 18.7% versus USDA's forecast for only a 13.7% decline. Once again, wheat loadings came in at the low end of expectations. With only two months left in the marketing year shipments are down 15.1% versus the current forecast for only a 6.5% decline. Key winter wheat states issued new monthly crop ratings yesterday and overall, winter wheat continued to improve, with slight declines for Kansas and South Dakota. USDA doesn't resume its weekly crop progress…
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03/25/2024 Trade Estimates for Prospective Plantings and Mar. 1 Stocks Vary Widely

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are mostly firm in overnight trade to start the week. Weekend rains and snow are welcome in the northern stretches of the country and the market is ignoring fierce Russian attacks on Ukraine's energy grid and weekend reports of manpower strains on Ukraine's struggling military. Focus this week will be on trade positioning ahead of Thursday's Prospective Plantings Report and the March 1 Grain Stocks. Trade estimates are out. The guesstimates put forth at USDA's Outlook Forum last month are presumed to be what's "in the market", so of most interest is how the trade estimates compare to those. For corn, the average is 91.8 million acres, up 800K from the Forum numbers. Estimates range, however from 90 to 93.8 million. For soybeans, the trade average is 85.7 million, down 800K from the Forum number. The range of estimates, are even wider for beans from as low as 84.3 million to as high as 89 million.  For wheat, all wheat is put at 47.3 million acres up 300,000 from the Forum estimate. There was no Forum estimate for spring wheat, but the trade estimate is down 300,000 acres from last year. Turning to Mar. 1 Grain…
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03/22/2024 Latest Long-term Weather Forecasts Show Some Potential Trouble Spots

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains and soybeans are soft in overnight trade with soybeans down double-digits at 6am. Yesterday's weekly export sales were mixed. Corn sales were in the upper half of the range of expectations while soybean sales were midrange. Wheat cancellations exceeded new sales by 110,000 tonnes. On a year-to-date basis, sales for corn and beans now lag the pace needed to justify USDA's current forecast for the year. Ironically, YTD wheat sales built up enough "cushion" on stronger sales earlier in the year that with just two months left in the marketing year they are still on pace to meet or beat USDA's current forecast. Speculation about what next Friday's Prospective Plantings report will show for the '24 "acreage mix" continues to mount. We should see some more private survey results over the weekend and will likely have the averages and ranges of expectations early next week as well. At issue will be how they vary from USDA's Outlook Forum forecast for corn at 91 million acres (down from 94.6 this year) and for beans at 86 million (up from 83.6 million this year.) There will also be a quarterly Grain Stocks report next Friday and we should…
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03/21/2024 Soybeans Show the Most Promising Chart Action in Months

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Overnight grains are all on the firm side as of 6am. Yesterday’s action in soybeans was especially impressive. Rising palm oil prices are boosting SBO and even though China has been focusing on buying Brazilian beans, their demand has been surprisingly strong. Prices in Dalian have rallied past the U.S. equivalent of 1450 and the highest in two months. On the May chart, we broke the downtrend early last week, tested the point of breakout by Friday, but have now taken out the prior high to form a fledgling uptrend line. Even more importantly, it closed above the 50-day moving average, which could trigger more short covering by funds. This content is for members only.Log In Register
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03/20/2024 New Trade Skirmishes Erupting Here and Abroad Over Unfair Trade Practices

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade with corn mostly steady, beans firm but wheat soft. The latest 2-week forecast calls for above-normal rain over the whole country with heaviest amounts forecast for where it’s needed most, the Pacific Northwest and Western Corn Belt. Temps are forecasted to be cooler than normal for most of the country as well, which means late season snow for some. This content is for members only.Log In Register
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03/19/2024 Host of Uncertainties on Acreage, Weather and Geopolitics Net Stalemate between Bulls and Bears for Now

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grain markets are steady-to-mixed in overnight trade. Uncertainty over the acreage swings we’ll see between corn and soybeans and how they vary from those put out in USDA’s Outlook Forum last month has both bulls and bears in a bit of stalemate awaiting the next hints from private surveys that have been underway.   The Allendale survey projecting more corn acres and fewer bean acres than USDA’s Forum numbers has been dialed in. Market impact was somewhat muted by the reality of continued strong corn export inspections and firm cash basis while the support for soybeans offset by the reality of soft exports amidst surging shipments and price advantage out of South America. Now the SBO rally is looking toppy as Malaysian palm oil production starts rising seasonally about now.   Wheat remains under constant pressure from fierce export price competition and improving winter wheat condition ratings, but expanding attacks by Russia on Ukraine’s port of Odesa while Ukraine’s successful attacks on Russian oil facilities and naval operations even include a threat to Russia’s own Black Sea grain ports. Further, Russia’s wheat prices actually moved higher last week for the first time since January and this latest…
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03/18/2024 Trading Funds Finally Lightening Up Big Short Positions

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade. As of 6am corn was mostly steady, beans weak and wheat firmer. Weekend news was mostly in the geopolitical arena. Putin overwhelmingly won another 6-year term as President, which was no surprise when what little opposition he has meet untimely "accidents". Israel has strongly condemned Chuck Schumer's call for a special election to oust Netanyahu and Biden's tacit endorsement of the speech. The war in Ukraine rages on but Ukraine's remarkable restoration of its Black Sea shipping lane made headlines over the weekend and is detailed below. Over the weekend, Russia stepped up attacks on agricultural facilities in Odessa while Ukraine launched multiple attacks into Russia. Back to our own shores, Trump is doubling down on promises to impose major tariffs on China's exports, including up to 100% tariffs on cars built by Chinese companies in Mexico. He says he doesn't fear or care about Chinese "retaliation", that's an unsettling background for our Ag export prospects. This morning we get weekly export inspections. Bean exports lag the needed pace to hit projections but domestic demand remains very robust as evidenced by a record February crush reported by NOPA Friday that exceeded…
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03/13/2024 Outlook for 2024 Still Cloudy, But Market Bears Less Cocky

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Grains are mixed in very low volume overnight trade as of 6 AM. Soybeans are weakest, with no follow through buying following yesterday's pop higher on Brazil's CONAB coming out with much lower crop estimates than USDA for both beans and corn. They're likely to go lower still and we explain why in this week's Brazilian operations update below. It's noteworthy that national average soybean basis gained another penny despite the jump in futures showing remaining beans in tight hands as fieldwork begins. In other news, Ukraine's Grain Traders Union says the combination of low prices, high costs amidst ongoing war will likely cut that country's total grain and oilseed production by 6.5 MMT in 2024. That's only about 8% and considerably more optimistic than last month's warning by Ukraine's Ag Ministry that production would likely fall 15% or more. Even that much decline will have an amplified impact on Ukraine's exports, however. The Union predicts corn exports will decline more than 6 million tonnes (over 20%) and wheat exports by 2 MMT (10%). Wheat has attempted to rally multiple times but keeps getting pushed back down by relentless selling by Russia at whatever discount it takes…
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