Joshua Van Ryswyk

On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade thus far. As of 6am, corn was steady, beans soft, and wheat a little firmer. The DJIA has had a rough start to the month after stronger-than-expected economic data is casting doubt on Fed hints at 3 rate cuts by the end of the year. It has fed a bit of risk-off mood that's bled into commodities as well. Even corn has given back all the gains since the lower-than-expected planting intentions. It seems to be a growing foregone conclusion that actual corn acreage will climb between now and the June Acreage report. It has risen in 15 of the past 20 years, varying only by how much. Increases exceeded a million acres in eight of those years with last year among the largest at 2.1 million. However, we've noted often that last year it was the high crop insurance coverage available, which is certainly not the case this year. Further, I've looked at the "anatomy" of the state-by-state changes last week and it argues against assuming the worst. Looking at total acreage planted to all principle crops, it went down in 35 states, up in 12 with 2 about unchanged.…

RECCO UPDATES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS DAY 3: On 3/19/24 we advised clients wishing risk protection against bearish numbers on last Thursday's reports to buy May 470 short-dated new crop put options for 12 cents or less on up to 50% of expected corn production.  We advised the same for soybean producers, but with May 1180 short-dated puts at 26 cents or less on up to 50% of expected production. As it turns out, Thursday's corn numbers were actually price-friendly and soybean numbers mostly neutral so we now advise selling those options for whatever premium is left to reduce the net cost of the protection. They served their purpose. On the Grains Grains are steady-to-mixed in overnight trade as of 6am. Crude oil is firming on rising geopolitical threats after an Israeli air strike in Syria hit the Iranian consulate in Damascus, killing the top commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard. Yesterday's weekly corn export shipments of 1.432 billion bu. were strong and beat the top end of the range of expectations. So did wheat loadings. Alas, soybean loadings of only 414,000 tonnes didn't even make the low end of the range of expectations and still running about 5% behind the needed…

RECCO UPDATES FOR CORN AND SOYBEANS DAY 2: On 3/19/24 we advised clients wishing risk protection against bearish numbers on last Thursday's reports to buy May 470 short-dated new crop put options for 12 cents or less on up to 50% of expected corn production.  We advised the same for soybean producers, but with May 1180 short dated puts at 26 cents or less on up to 50% of expected production. As it turns out, Thursday's corn numbers were actually price-friendly and soybean numbers mostly neutral so we now advise selling those options for whatever premium is left to reduce the net cost of the protection. They served their purpose. On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade thus far. As of 6am corn was a little lower, beans firmer and wheat lower. Last Thursday's export sales were overshadowed by the big reports that came out later, but were highly mixed in market reaction. Corn sales came in on the high side of expectations and wheat sales even beat the high end while soybean sales didn't even make the low end of expectations. We'll now continue to digest the surprises from both planting intentions and Mar. 1 Stocks. Lost in…