Katie Geerdes

The above map shows the spring average last frost dates for regions of the country. First and last frost dates have been extending the growing season for much of the country. One could say that spring is coming sooner but this year was unprecedented for us to have had a dose of spring in early March. Farm publications all have stories on cover crops as they have become the new thing. They are not very applicable to the NCB starting at the Iowa/MN border as there is little time for them to develop before row crops go in. Our crop insurance date for corn is April 10th and for soybeans April 15th. Farmers like to get both crops planted in April if conditions allow. Note that in NW IA where we are, planting soybeans in April is challenging the final frost date. Farmers bumped up the soybean planting date from what it used to be generationally by as much as a month resulting in improved yields. Cover crops just get in the way of early planting. They are still being tried because of carbon credits. A farmer shared his experience at a recent carbon conference. I understand carbon scoring and…

Gold prices rallied to new all-time highs again today as investors priced in the increasing likelihood of inflation staying a problem. The latest jobs report may have pushed back against bets for interest rates to start falling soon, but the data did nothing to quell inflation fears. The shift in monetary policy still expected for later this summer has major banks such as Goldman Sachs and Bank of America maintaining a strong outlook for gold, oil, and other commodities because of the view that lower interest rates and a weaker dollar will be linked to persisting concern about inflation.   In a recent report by Goldman Sachs, the analysts cited the historical tendency for gold and crude oil being two of the top performing commodities during periods of falling interest rates. Grain and livestock prices were also observed to benefit in such an environment, but to a lesser degree than most other commodities. Currently down sharply since the start of the year, grain futures have considerable room to catch up to the broader market, as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index is higher by about 11 percent year-to-date.   The caveat to the bullish commodities argument is that the Goldman study…

On the Grains Markets are mixed in overnight trade thus far. Corn is mostly steady, beans on the soft side with wheat firming. Yesterday started off with crummy weekly export sales either near or below the low end of the range of trade expectations. Yet crop futures absorbed them surprisingly well, corn finishing a little higher, beans off only slightly and wheat closing mixed, with winter wheat in the red but MGE wheat in the green.   On Monday we'll get the next Weekly Crop Progress report after markets close now that they've resumed for the growing season. What will get top attention are planting progress and wheat condition ratings. The eastern Corn Belt is cold and soggy with bad flooding reported in the Ohio River valley. That's good news for Mississippi River barge traffic but will definitely slow fieldwork in the ECB. Not so for most of the WCB, however. We should see good planting progress for the WCB Monday and the latest 8-14 day outlook appears ideal for rapid progress across nearly the entire Midwest and Plains.   The outlook is for wetter than normal during this period in most of Texas, but it will be welcome there…

When the headline surfaced, "Officials Confirm HPAI Dairy Infections" a thread began to unravel that we have not seen the end of yet. North America appears to be awash in Bird Flu virus as the wild bird migration traverses the continent. Biologists were concerned that at some point the virus would jump species to animals other than poultry. Finally, it happened when dairy cows in TX and KS were confirmed to have been infected with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) virus. That gave this story some new legs. The cows got sick but there was no associated mortality. Initially observers discounted the risk saying that milk from unhealthy cows is discarded while milk consumed by the public is pasteurized and there was no way the virus would be passed along through the food chain. USDA gave its seal of approval that "there was no impact on human health." They did also offer the caveat that this was "a rapidly evolving situation." HPAI was also found in a Minnesota goat. Then again not enough research has been done to know anything for sure yet with high confidence. Cows also tend to be more exposed outdoors. The load of virus in the…

The Fed is closely watching prices and inflation. Gas and food prices are unlikely to fall near term due to seasonal factors. Strong housing sector prices contribute to inflation. A contractor says that while lumber prices have come down, paint, materials and labor costs have gone up to offset it so building a house has not gotten cheaper. I have to admit I'd have lost money betting against home values rising further given mortgage rate hikes. I thought that home values would fall to compensate for higher rates but…   They explain the strength in the housing market as demand exceeds supply with many more prospective buyers than homes on the market. There is less turnover of older homes as owners do not want to give up favorable mortgages to upgrade homes at higher interest rates. My granddaughter and her spouse just moved into a townhouse as new first-time homeowners. The two professionals bought what they could afford which was a modest starter home in Omaha. There were multiple offers at the listing price. I was favorably impressed with the amount of square-footage they got for their investment. Rent is high in part because the high cost of home owning…

Last year our crops sucked all available moisture from our soil profile in order to finish here in NW IA. We had enough subsoil moisture reserves, where there are deep soils, to finish the crop with better-than-expected yields. Our moisture was tapped out in the process, so we were bone dry at harvest. Then it started raining here again in October. My partner who tracks his accumulations says that we got 8 inches in October which went a long way to restore our soil moisture deficit. Our soil profile can hold 11 inches that is available to a corn crop on our farms. Next to happen is that it did not freeze hard until after Christmas. Some did field work up until Christmas and some tilers worked here in January before we got hard frozen ground. We got another 2 inches of rain in December. The late freeze allowed this to soak into the soil profile as well. The winter freeze did not last long, as I told you that the car that they park on the ice on our lake, fell in the earliest ever before in the 'guess the date' contest. This year the lake was frozen for…